The 'C' Words: Correlation Doesn't Equal Causation

Please refresh the page to get the latest updates.

All Science & Technology Culture & Entertainment Economy & Business Health Travel & Lifestyle Language & Education Asia & Pacific USA & Americas Europe

Materials

Read Engoo Daily News articles with Engoo tutors

June 18, 2024

Advanced

Exercise 1

Vocabulary

Repeat each word, definition, and example sentence after your tutor.

trap

Noun

træp

a trick by which someone is deceived into doing, thinking, etc. something they did not intend

Always make sure to cancel your free subscriptions on time to avoid the trap of automatic renewals.

fallacy

Noun

ˈfæləsi

an idea or belief that is false

The belief that money will bring you happiness is a fallacy.

debater

Noun

dɪˈbeɪtər

a person who argues about something in a formal way

Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was a skilled public speaker and formidable debater.

plot

Verb

plɑːt

to mark out something on a graph, chart, map, etc.

We spent the evening plotting the route for our upcoming road trip.

consumption

Noun

kənˈsʌmpʃn

the action of using food, energy, etc.; the amount of something used

The FDA tests food products to make sure they are safe for human consumption.

The Spanish government has introduced new regulations to reduce the country's energy consumption.

justify

Verb

ˈdʒəstəˌfaɪ

to show or prove that something is right or reasonable; to be a good reason for

There is nothing you can say to justify your rude behavior.

His performance has not been good enough to justify a big raise.

Exercise 2

Article

Read the article aloud on your own or repeat each paragraph after your tutor.

AI Generated Audio––:–– / ––:––

The 'C' Words: Correlation Doesn't Equal Causation

From a young age, we spend a lot of time asking, "Why?"

We're always looking for causes and reasons, and it's something that doesn't really leave us as adults.

But sometimes we can look too hard for those reasons.

That's when we can fall into the trap you might know as the "false cause fallacy" — or by the words, "Correlation is not causation!"

It's a warning that should be inked into the minds of debaters and politicians, scientists and statisticians — but even they don't always avoid the trap.

These two "C" words have quite different meanings. Correlation is a measure of how closely two observations are related. Causation describes one thing that causes another.

They can be confused — sometimes purposely, often by accident. Just because two things tend to occur together doesn't mean that one causes the other.

Take this example: In the summer, people eat more ice cream, and they get more sunburns.

If we plotted these two things on a graph, we'd see a positive correlation: at the time of year when ice cream eating increases, so do cases of sunburn.

So there is a correlation between them. But we can't say that eating ice cream is the cause of sunburns. There is, of course, a third factor — hot weather — that drives both the increase in ice cream consumption and the increase in sunburns.

But the examples are not always this obvious. And while a strong correlation might mean causality, there are other possible explanations too — like a third factor such as in the previous example, or simply random chance.

This is why a good scientific study will usually note only a correlation between, say, certain foods or certain habits and developing a specific disease — because causation is very difficult to prove.

So how can we avoid the correlation-versus-causation trap?

Statistics expert Tyler Vigen says we should think critically about statistics we see, and examine the figures and methods for ourselves to see if they justify a causal relationship.